Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 26, 2025 in Blog |
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 102
LOSSES — 87
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — +$445
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-5-2 (+$160)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,445.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points…W
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)…L
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
INDY-KC: Full-Game Line — Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis (-120)…P
SEA-TEN: First-Half Team Total — Seattle OVER 13.5 points…W
ATL-NOR: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2 vs. Atlanta…L
ATL-NOR: Player Prop — ATL RB Robinson UNDER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)…W
BAL-NYJ: Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 35.5 rushing yards (-120)….W
JAX-ARZ: Full-Game Line — Arizona +3 vs. Jacksonville….P
JAX-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 244.5 passing yards (-115)….W
PIT-CHI: Team Total — Chicago OVER 24….W
MIN-GB: Player Prop — Will QB McCarthy throw an interception–YES (-155)…W
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)…L
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 24.5 yards (-115)…L
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 13:
GB vs. DET [THUR]
Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5
It’s counterintuitive to go UNDER in Detroit home games. After all, we know from recent seasons under coach Dan Campbell the Lions are a high-scoring offense that often takes risks. Yet surprisingly, Detroit is just 6-5 to the OVER this season. Green Bay is 5-6 to the OVER. So these two rivals’ totals do balance out. Which side prevails here and dictates the playbook? I believe with a short preparation week, a division rivalry, and two top-ten defenses, that’s enough evidence to bet UNDER 48.5. Also, recall Thursday games enjoy a slight edge in UNDERs historically — cashing slightly above 52 percent of the time. Last season, the three Thanksgiving games went 43-47-48 in scoring, which is about in line with league-wide scoring averages. However, the half point on the 48 in this matchup could be huge. The Lions hosted the Bears last season in this early annual Thanksgiving Day gobbler, winning 23-20. Green Bay’s #4-ranked defense is playing well. Detroit’s #10-ranked defense is certainly better than average. The Lions’ offense has looked very sluggish (for them) the last two home games — losing outright to Minnesota and get very lucky to win in a late comeback versus the lowly Giants. The Packers’ offense also continues to play inconsistently. Looks like a game that could land in the 23-20 or 24-20 or 27-20 range, which gives the edge to the low side of this total.
KC vs. DAL [THUR]
Full-Game Total: UNDER 52.5
Team Prop: Will both kickers make 33+ yard FGs–YES (-150)
The total opened at 51.5 in this game and it’s now up to 52.5. Perhaps it moves higher, but I’ll lock in this number now and go UNDER. Bettors may not have caught into some changes to both teams over the last few games. Dallas’ defense has improved lately, allowed 27-16-21 in its last three games. Of course, the Cowboys’ defense was horrid in the first 8 games of the season, so anything would be an improvement. That said, this unit may not be quite as bad now as they were earlier in the season. Combine this data with the Chiefs who have struggled over the course of the entire season, already with five losses. They’re just 1-4 SU away from Arrowhead. The Chiefs’ rushing attack has disappeared and they’re not making the big plays we’re used to watching. So, I’m confident this combination of factors (improving DAL defense and declining KC offense) should keep scoring in check. Let’s also add KC’s very good defense, which has allowed just one opponent this season to cross the 30-point mark (and that was due to a defensive score). This looks like a very high total, so I’m inclined to bet UNDER 52.5. /// Here’s something of contradiction to betting the UNDER–and that’s taking the kickers to make FGs. Actually, FGs may not hurt so much in a high-total game like this. DAL and KC boast two of the longest-range kickers in the NFL, so betting each of them to make a FG of 33 yards or longer seems like a reasonable expectation. KC’s Butker has kicked 33+ FGs in 8 of 11 games this season. DAL’s Aubrey has kicked 33+ FGs in 7 of 11 games this season. The lay price of -150 is slightly higher than the -130 standard vig, but I believe it’s justified given we have two proven kickers with some potential of offenses stalling in opposing territory. Indoors in the rubber grass helps the success rate, as well.
CIN vs. BAL [THUR]
Team Prop: CIN first-quarter team score OVER 3 points (-130)
Team Prop: CIN first-half team score OVER 10 points (-115)
The expectation is 2 offensive drives for each team in the 1Q, and perhaps 3 drives for the KO-receiving team (the overall NFL game average is about 12 possessions per team/per game). A *3* as a team scoring total, even with elevated vig can be a sucker bet, since it probably takes a touchdown to lose (yes, two FGs could happen). The NFL’s new KO rules have slightly increased first-drive scoring. Teams are starting with better field position, on average. This week, the Bengals’ offense sees the return of Joe Burrow, who has been out more than half the season. QB Flacco did a good job in the backup role, especially on the stats sheet. But Burrow is the franchise player and his return should lift the entire team. Cincy also gets WR Chase back in the lineup, coming back from a 1-game suspension. So, the Bengals’ offense should be ready to fire, even with some concern about Burrow’s possible rust factor. The Bengals are also scoring TDs in the red zone at a very strong rate (65 percent)….compared to Baltimore at just 47 percent of red zone trips. So, if Cincy moves the ball early, this offense often closes the drive with TDs. Credit the Ravens on a current 5-game win streak and a defense that’s clearly better now that they’re healthy. But a glance at the dogshit teams and QBs — Jets, Browns, Vikings, Dolphins — and let’s not get carried away. Cincinnati put up well above-average points even with an aged backup. Burrow seems likely to boost those numbers. Recall his success with the team in the later half of last season, when the Bengals offense was among the best in the league. The Bengals OVER 3 1Q and OVER 10 1H look like superior wagers to the CIN team total for the full-game, which is 21.5. Naturally, there’s some decent chance these bets will push on key numbers.
<<< MORE PICKS COMING >>>
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 20, 2025 in Blog |
ORANGE IS THE NEW JUICE
(HOW TRUMP BECAME THE NEW O.J.)
If and when they’re ever released, the TRUMPStEIN FILES don’t really matter as much anymore.
Whatever slimy details are burrowed therein, the remaining “evidence” isn’t trustworthy. Not anymore. Can anyone really trust the hand-picked sycophantic inner-circle of blind loyalists inside Trump’s DOJ to allow any dirt on their boss to surface? Does anyone really expect to discover a hidden treasure drove of legitimate materials related to sex crimes by Jeffrey Epstein and all those who willfully participated and enabled a decade of abuses?
The Trumpstein Files are now in the process of being scrubbed so clean it’s gonna’ read like Dr. Seuss wrote it. According to the bill that was just signed mandating the release, the Orange House now has 30-days to redact, block, strike out, delay, alter, and/or obliterate ANY evidence that might possibly link Trump to any wrongdoing. THIRTY DAYS!
Fortunately, most Americans will know when they’ve ordered steak of the menu and then get served a heaping pile of bullshit. What in the hell is this? This isn’t what we ordered.
Trump’s “trial” has been the many months leading up to this point in time. The evidence of his guilt has been countless acts of open DEFIANCE and OBSTRUCTION. Every single step of the way. Delaying. Distracting. Deflecting. What-about-ing. Lying. Insisting the files “don’t really exist.” Absurdly claiming Trump was close to Epstein because he was working as “in FBI informant” (that whopper was floated by Republican House Leader, Little Mike Johnson). When those tactics failed, next Trump launched into a multitude of vicious personal attacks on all those — some even within his own party — who disagreed with him. He ripped into every one of them. He threatened them. He defamed them. He even called them “traitors.”
DOES THIS SOUND LIKE AN INNOCENT MAN TO YOU ? ???
Twenty-five years ago, another famous person was suspected of committing a very serious crime. He could have cooperated with law enforcement and investigators, but didn’t. So, he went on the run. We all remember the scared celebrity who jumped into the rear seat of a white Ford Bronco and tried to get away and hide from the world. So far as his guilt, the trial became secondary. He later won in court, as many guilty rich and famous people in America do, but the country knew he was guilty. We didn’t need a jury. We saw it in a white Ford Bronco fleeing the police on the highways of Los Angeles. Innocent people don’t run and hide from the evidence. They welcome it.
The last eight months of ceaseless obstructions have been Trump’s white Ford Bronco moment. We’ve all watched it and we’ve all seen it. Now, he’s essentially turned himself in, and remains lawyered up and buffered with the most powerful legal team in the country. I doubt if he’ll be found guilty of anything, because he’s escaped justice so many times before.
Charges don’t matter. No trial is necessary. We’ve already witnessed Trump’s behavior — not just in these recent months, but over a scandalous and scurrilous lifetime.
Orange is the new juice.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 19, 2025 in Blog |
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 95
LOSSES — 82
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$285
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-4-2 (+$230)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,285
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W
Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami…P
Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)…P
Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta…W
Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)…W
HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)…W
CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)…W
SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)…L
KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45…W
First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)…L
First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)…L
Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas…W
THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:
Question – Are Thursday Night Football games lower scoring than average?
Answer – Stats show that in NFL Thursday Night Football games, the UNDER hits more often than the OVER. In all TNF games played since 2019, 46.8 percent have gone UNDER the closing total. Average scoring on Thursday nights is slightly lower than on other gamedays, with TNF games averaging 45.7 combined points versus 46.0 on other days. This .3 figure might seem insignificant, but given the margins (and helped by wise line shopping), it’s possible perhaps to extend the edge to 54-46, or perhaps even as high as 55-45 with a half or full point here or there. So, I believe UNDERs must be the starting point in TNF games, or at the very least — there needs to be compelling outliers to wager on OVERs
One interesting subset of TNF trends and totals from online data is the *decline* in O/U totals as the season progresses. Check out this data, which I found surprising (since 2019):
Weeks 1-5: 46.22 average total
Weeks 6-11: 45.40 average total
Weeks 12-17: 43.57 average total
Note that scoring variance also tends to be higher in TNF games. The standard deviation in point totals for TNF games was 14.6, compared to 13.7 for other games. The reasons for this is probably lower-quality play combined with shorter rest and preparation for teams playing on Thursdays, which apparently impacts the offenses more than defenses.
Given a small edge on this trend, combined with Houston’s strong defense, I’m betting UNDER 43.5 in this week’s TNF contest.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 12:
BUF vs. HOU (TNF)
Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Here’s an intriguing AFC matchup between two of last year’s division leaders now looking upward at first place and needing victories to stay alive in their respective races. Buffalo is 1.5 games behind New England. Houston is probably out of their division chase completely since they’re now 3 games back of Indy (and Jacksonville), but needs to win to stay in the wild card chase. The game means more to the Texans, but can they rise to the occasion and deliver?
Getting +5.5 points as the home dog is tempting. This is especially true given Houston’s defense, which is among the NFL’s best by any metric. I’m unsure if they’ll be able to handle the Bills’ prolific offense, but the Texans defense does rank #1 in PPF (16.9), #1 in YPG (259.1), and #2 in YPP (4.5). The Bills are in for a tough test, for sure.
The problem and the worry for bettors is Houston’s troubled offense, which has been inconsistent at best and embarrassingly bad at worst. The Texans’ 16-point production versus lowly Tennessee last week, in which they needed a last second FG to defeat one of the worst teams in the league, should be a huge red flag and a warning sign. Houston’s play-calling was atrocious in that game. The top RB (Banks) averaged just 2.8 YPC on 18 feeds. That’s shameful. Houston’s season-long struggles are, in part, due to a below-average offensive line. It’s hard to see how the Texans will be able to do much scoring, and if they fall behind to a team like Buffalo which can run up points, this team is in big trouble. I’m labeling the Jacksonville comeback win two weeks ago a fluke. Fact is, Houston is a 5-5 team that might be two wins either better or worse except for the vast disparity between a top-3 defense and a lousy offense.
I’m betting UNDER 43.5 based on Houston’s excellent defense, combined with their subpar offense. Note that in the Texans’ 5 losses, the defense still played well (most points allowed this season–27 to Seattle). That tells me the Texans will likely have to produce points also for this total to go OVER. I don’t think Houston will be able to score enough points, especially given the limitations we saw at Tennessee last Sunday.
I am betting two Houston player props, both relating to Tight End Dalton Schultz. Backup QB Mills appears to look to his TE as a favorite target – throwing to Schultz a whopping 20 times in the last two games. Schultz’s targets show 11-9-8-3-10 in his last five games, so he’s likely to get enough touches to surpass 4.5 catches. Receptions are also very favorable in the last five weeks, which shows 6-7-6-2-9 in those games. Getting +105 on the OVER is a nice bonus. Add a script where Houston might be playing from behind as the underdog, and Schultz’s numbers potentially look even better.
Given I like Schultz to catch 5+ passes, I’ll add a wager on his yardage prop – OVER 39.5 (-115). Even though Houston’s offense stinks, the TE position has been an above-average bright spot, as Schultz averages 48 receiving YPG. With Mills at QB, Schultz has over 100 yards the past two games, and his last five stat line shows – 51-53-77-24-98. Exceeding 39.5 doesn’t seem like too much to ask given his recent history.
Note that Schultz has reportedly been limited in practice, with a “shoulder injury.” Official designations come out Wednesday. Yet, report’s been pretty much the same for each of the last four games, and he’s played through any discomfort. Given that Houston really needs to win each week and with a 10-day rest coming up, and Buffalo will certainly be a tough foe, there’s no way Schultz isn’t taking the field as the starter and getting action, so long as he can walk.
<<<Picks and analysis updated Wed-Sat>>>>
FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 12:
(For those who just want the picks):
Full-Game Total — BUF/HOU UNDER 43.5 points…W
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)…L
Player Prop — HOU TE Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)…L
INDY-KC: Full-Game Line — Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis (-120)
SEA-TEN: First-Half Team Total — Seattle OVER 13.5 points
ATL-NOR: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2 vs. Atlanta
ATL-NOR: Player Prop — ATL RB Robinson UNDER 84.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-NYJ: Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 35.5 rushing yards (-120)
JAX-ARZ: Full-Game Line — Arizona +3 vs. Jacksonville
JAX-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 244.5 passing yards (-115)
PIT-CHI: Team Total — Chicago OVER 24
MIN-GB: Player Prop — Will QB McCarthy throw an interception–YES (-155)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)
NWE-CIN: Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 24.5 yards (-115)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 15, 2025 in Blog |
A terrible tragedy happened in Las Vegas yesterday. It was senseless. Stupid. Totally unnecessary.
The result: A dead 11-year-old boy and a murder charge.
The reason: Road rage.
Two drivers got into a dispute. The reasoning, or lack thereof, doesn’t matter. Two cars were driving on a city highway early in the morning. Then, with no warning, something happened between them triggering a back-and-forth clash that ended abruptly when one of the drivers produced a handgun. He fired a shot at the other driver. The bullet blasted through the car window and hit a child who was sitting in the back seat being taken on his way to school. The shooter was later identified and arrested. The boy was pronounced dead.
[READ THE StORY HERE]
Most of us who drive encounter these potentially dangerous situations daily — and what I mean here is *road rage*. I think this is a particularly bad problem here in Las Vegas, which is a city with more risky behavior, a higher degree of eccentricities, a somewhat transient population, combined with a general sense of personal entitlement by many.
Though I never would have done something as crazy as firing a gun, I admit to being a road wage warrior in my years past. It’s not something I’m proud of. But I used to yell at other drivers often, flip the middle finger, honk the horn, and behave pretty much like a jerk. *Get out of my way! I got places to go and people to see!* Maybe it’s getting older (and a little wiser). Whatever the reasons, I softened over the years and now am pretty laid back when it comes to driving. The big turning point for me was listening to a podcast about five years ago, oddly enough, while I was driving. It was a moment when I changed, and I can still remember how profound the revelation was to me and how it altered my thinking and behavior. In wake of this local tragedy and the worsening problem of road rage, right now seems like a good time to share my experience. Maybe it will even help someone, or save a life.
Sam Harris was interviewing a psychologist on his excellent podcast titled “Making Sense.” Unfortunately, I don’t remember the name of the guest. The topic being discussed were the ways people cope with conflict and the manner in which we manifest anger and frustration. Harris is really big into meditation and this was one of his constructive responses to the pressures of daily life.
At one point in the conversation, Harris began talking about road rage and how common it is, particularly in Los Angeles where he lives. I began listening more closely and even found myself shaking my head (in disagreement). But then the more they talked, the more I became aware of a very different — far more healthy and constructive perspective — and I changed my mind within perhaps only 4 to 5 minutes of the discussion. I even found myself nodding in agreement by the time the point had been made.
Harris advised that when another driver cuts us off in traffic or does something we perceive violates our space and rights–just let it go. Even if the other driver becomes belligerent and does something that offends us–just let it go. If the other river honks, yells, and flips you the middle finger–just let it go.
Paraphrasing here, but I can still pretty much hear most of the conversation and recall his words in my head, even years later. Such was the impact. Harris noted that we never know what is going on in the other person’s mind, or LIFE at that instant.
You never know when someone’s final straw will come, the one that finally breaks the camel’s back. It could be something small, like making an awkward lane change on the road. You never know what triggers their rage behind the wheel, or incites other sudden fits of anger in someone who is completely anonymous to us yet who now is engaged in potentially violent conflict. What matters is — someone you don’t know and have never met is dealing with *something*. Maybe it’s a family conflict. Maybe it’s a painful divorce. Maybe a job loss. Maybe a death. Maybe a serious financial setback. Maybe an illness. Maybe a reaction to their medication. There are innumerable triggers in all of our lives, and our society does a piss poor job teaching the options on how to cope with troubles. We never know what happened earlier that made a driver reach a BREAKING POINT.
While we cannot solve the problems in the other person’s life, we most certainly can try to avoid making their anger and frustrations much worse. No act of rage was ever solved with MORE RAGE. Escalation isn’t good for anyone. Not for them. Not for us. Rage only makes a problem worse. Perhaps even violent or deadly.
So, just let it go.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 13, 2025 in Blog |
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 88
LOSSES — 78
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$55
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 6-8-0 (-$295)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,055
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)…W
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 recepts (-115)…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +6.5…W
ATL/IND: First-Half Line — Atlanta +3.5…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Total — ATL/IND UNDER 48.5…L
BAL/MIN: Full-Game Line – Baltimore -4 (-105)…W
NWE/TB: Player Prop — NWE QB Maye OVER 21.5 completions (-115)…L
NOR/CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina -5.5…L
NOR/CAR: Player Prop — CAR RB Hubbard OVER 20.5 yards (-115)…L
NYG/CHI: Full-Game Total — NYG/CHI UNDER 47…W
BUF/MIA: Player Prop — BUF QB Allen to score touchdown–YES (-125)…L
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Line — Arizona +3.5 (even)…L
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Team Total — Arizona OVER 9.5…L
ARZ/SEA: Full-Game Line — Arizona +7…L
THOUGHTS THIS WEEK:
The toughest thing in sports handicapping is jumping back into action following a losing week. All the work we’ve done recently not only produced zero profits, we also lost money. I admit to going through multiple periods of frustration — and even self-doubt — over the years. Dealing with losses isn’t easy, and if it is easy, then you might be in the wrong vocation. Moreover, if and when losses become habitual and irrefutable, then it’s time to change capping and research tactics (or perhaps pause or even quit betting altogether). All serious bettors who I know, and this includes very successful sports gamblers over a long period of time, have gone through seemingly endless losing streaks, questioned themselves, and some have even scaled back wagering or taken extended breaks.
Some results and outcomes make no sense whatsoever. Take last Sunday’s Buffalo-Miami game. I thought the Dolphins were the right side getting +9.5 points in a divisional game. However, nobody expected Miami to dominate the game and win by double digits. The score at the end of the 3rd quarter was Miami leading 16-0. If anyone posted an advance prediction that forecasted anything close to that shocker, I’d sure like to see it. Send me a link. I’m serious.
Another game that made no sense was Carolina shitting the bed at home against New Orleans. Perhaps the Panthers were a shaky favorite. But the 1-8 Saints looked awful most of the season. I didn’t see anyone forecast a New Orleans upset by 10 points. Again — show me who called this final result. I want to see it.
Losing games is all part of betting. But when the team we bet on doesn’t even show up and gets destroyed, then something’s wrong. And if it’s happening often, something is REALLY wrong. I’ve been trying to figure out how and why some teams come out of nowhere and play great games after seemingly being outclassed, outcoached, and left for dead by the betting public. If I can ever figure this out, I’ll be sure and share it. In the meantime, I’ll be more careful and cautious about what I post here. If there was a lesson learned, I’m not sure what it is. But I’m still learning.
Now, on to NFL Week #11.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 11:
NYJ vs. NWE [TNF]
Team Total: NYJ OVER 6.5 points (first-half) (-130)
The Jets are a mess right now, but they are riding a surprising two-game win streak with wins versus Cincy and Cleveland. Both wins were shaky efforts, but a win is a win in the NFL and that success should spark confidence for the big underdog in this AFC East matchup. NYJ are listed as 12-point dogs with a team total of only 14.5 points (for the full-game), which is insultingly low for any NFL team. Admittedly, the NYJ are wildly inconsistent, but have posted some decent figures. They’ve scored 20+ points in 5/9 games this season. That figure is actually 4/9 (if we subtrack special teams scores). I still lean OVER on the Jets for the full game, but the superior value looks to be going OVER 6.5 and catching a win on the key number — 7 for the first half. Obviously, we’re aiming for just one NYJ touchdown plus the conversion to cash this team prop. NYJ average a woeful 8.1 PPG in 1H this season. New England’s defense allows 10.8 PPG in 1H this season. Even with all the Jets’ issues, riding a mini-win streak combined with some possibility the Patriots could be flat here, adding in the division rivalry, and a short prep week all combine to make this a compelling wager. Unless there are highly unusual circumstances, such as miserable weather conditions and/or a terrible starting QB, I think most NFL teams are automatic bets at OVER 6.5 priced at -130.
[To be updated between Wed-Sat]
Final Picks for Week 11 (For those who just want the picks):
NYJ/NWE: Team Total — NYJ OVER 6.5 points [first-half] (-130)…W
Full-Game Line — Washington +3 vs. Miami
Full-Game Line — Green Bay -7 vs. NY Giants (-115)
Full-Game Line — Carolina +3.5 vs. Atlanta
Full-Game Line — Jacksonville +3 vs. LA Chargers (-115)
HOU-TEN — Player Prop — HOU RB Chubb OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115)
BAL-CLE — Player Prop — BAL QB Jackson UNDER 37.5 rushing yards (-110)
CIN-PIT — Player Prop — CIN TE Fant OVER 23.5 yards (-115)
SFO-ARZ — Player Prop — ARZ PK Ryland OVER 6.5 points (-105)
KC-DEN — Full-Game Total — Kansas City/Denver UNDER 45
First-Quarter Line — Cincinnati +.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-130)
First-Half Line — Cincinnati +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)
Full-Game Line — Dallas -3 vs. Las Vegas
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Nov 5, 2025 in Blog |
2025 NFL: WEEK 10 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 82
LOSSES — 70
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$350
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-9-0 (-$140)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,350.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)…L
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
CAR-GB Player Prop: CAR RB Dowdle OVER 53.5 rushing yards…W
MIN-DET: Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy UNDER 19.5 pass completions (-135)… W
CHI-CIN: First-Half: Cincinnati +1…W
CHI-CIN: Full-game: Cincinnati +2 (-105)…L
ATL-NWE: Full-Game: New England -5…L
DEN-HOU: First-Half: Denver +.5 (-115)…L
DEN-HOU: Full-game: Denver +1.5…W
DEN-HOU: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-130)…W
SFO-NYG: Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5 (-115)…L
IND-PIT: Full Game: Pittsburgh +3…W
NOR-LAR: Full Game: LA Rams -13.5 (-115)…W
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)…W
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (+115)…W
ARZ: DAL: First-Half: Dallas -2…L
ARZ-DAL: Full Game: Dallas -3…L
ARZ-DAL: Team Prop: Will both teams kick 33+ yards FG–YES (-145)…L
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
THIS WEEK’S FAVORITE MEMORY:
REMEMBERING THE GREATEST KICK
Last Sunday, placekicker Cam Little booted the longest field goal in NFL history. Late in the second quarter of the Jacksonville-Las Vegas game, the Jaguars kicker lined up and nailed a 68-yarder that sailed straight between the uprights and over the crossbar, by perhaps another 4-5 yards. The kick very likely would have been good from 70+ yards. It’s hard to believe the NFL has been around for more than a century, and has included tens of thousands of successful field goals. Yet, that instant became the new all-time record.
NFL kicking is both mysterious and unpredictable. It’s peculiar how many missed extra points there have been in recent years (the ball is kicked from the 15-yard line–which should be automatic for any pro kicker). Yet this is also the golden age of long-distance placekicking. 50+-yarders used to be rare in football. Now, they happen multiple times each week. 60+-yarders aren’t even a big deal anymore. Pretty soon, I expect we’ll see the first 70+-yard field goal. It’s not a matter of if, but when.
Taking nothing away from Little’s feat last weekend, his kick lacks any lasting sense of drama. It just wasn’t anywhere close to as exciting as what’s widely acknowledged as the greatest kick in NFL history — Tom Dempsey’s half-boot blast off a dirt field at old Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, lifting the dismal Saints to a heroic last-second victory versus the Lions. Why was Dempsey’s kick 55 years ago, five yards shorter, more memorable?
I think it’s all about the story. The ultimate underdogs–both the team and the player. Great moments in sports need to be remembered in their full context. It’s important to know the backstory and the preamble to greatness. Dempsey’s kick has all that, and so much more. Sorry but Little’s kick wasn’t nearly as big.
Take a minute and watch this blurry but thrilling video nonetheless of the live 1970 CBS television broadcast. New Orleans didn’t even have the ball with 11 seconds left in the game, while trailing. The Saints not only had to run the kickoff back and not waste precious seconds. They also had to gain another 15 or so yards, with no timeouts, and get out of bounds to stop the clock. Then, the kicking team has to come on and make a field goal off dirt, eclipsing the prior record by a whopping SEVEN YARDS! The previous longest kick in history had been 56-yards by Bert Rechichar of the Baltimore Colts seventeen years earlier, in 1953.
Oh, and let’s add a few more obstacles. The Saints were awful. Heading into the Lions game, they were 1-5-1 and in last place. Days earlier, the head coach had been fired. And the kicker was a portly man named Tom Dempsey, then in his second pro season. He was a barrel-shaped player originally from Milwaukee who had a career kicking success rate of just 52 percent on field goals (today, the success rate of kickers is about 80 percent). He’d made just 32 of 61 lifetime attempts. Oh, and Dempsey had another issue. He was born with no toes on his kicking foot. So, the Saints constructed a special boot just for him, in the shape of a sledgehammer. He was also missing his right hand, another birth defect (try kicking a ball without swinging your arms for balance, sometime). Dempsey was undoubtedly the most physically-challenged player in NFL history. This is the man with a HALF FOOT who trotted out onto the dusty field in November 1970 to try and win a game for the lowly Saints.
But remember, first New Orleans had to get the ball into position. What you see here in the video is that backstory and the preamble to greatness. A perfect storm had to happen, in just this precise way. If that last second pass that gained a few extra yards had been incomplete on the previous play, there would have been no Tom Dempsey moment.
Yes, Little’s kick last Sunday was great, and he may hold the record until someone else comes along and makes one that’s longer. However, I doubt any kick will ever be as memorable as Tom Dempsey’s 55 years ago — this week (Nov. 8, 1970).
Watch here: LINK– https://youtu.be/cjqiq4S9bqA?si=5Q758SWZ6chajZgP
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 10:
LAS VEGAS vs. DENVER (TNF)
Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)
Player Prop; DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 receptions (-115)
It’s hard to believe Denver is 7-2 and in first place in the AC West. The Broncos have won five straight and are undefeated at home. This looks like a mismatch hosting struggling Las Vegas. Following a bye, the Raiders are now on a short week, hit the road, and come off a gut-wrenching loss at home. The Raiders had their shot to reboot their season last week at home against Jacksonville, but came up short. I can’t see Las Vegas now going on the highway and facing a much tougher defense that appears to be improving each week after some shaky play earlier in the season. That’s why this game is lined at just shy of double digits (line is presently 9 to 9.5).
Given we expect a Broncos win, perhaps by more than one score, two player props stand out:
- For all his troubles this season, QB Geno Smith enjoyed a good game last week, especially with his two top receiving targets back in action. Smith threw for nearly 300 yards and 4 TDs. That likely means another pass-heavy script, particularly given the game line which implies the Raiders will be playing from behind later in the game. Smith won’t be afraid to air out the ball, which increases the chances of an interception. Smith has already tossed 11 picks this season, one of the highest numbers in the NFL. He’s also thrown an interception in 6 of 8 games. Playing versus a top-5 defense likely means Smith will end up with at least one pick. The high vig is problematic. However, I see the odds as closer to 1-2 (or -200) that Smith plays a mistake free game. The Broncos also lead the league in sacks (at 4.4 per game), which means Smith is going to get plenty of pressure, and that often translates into mistakes.
- Denver TE Evan Engram is coming off a terrible game in Houston. He had no receptions in a close game, and could be out of favor as a primary target. In fact, he’s been targeted just 7 times in the last two games, and both included lots of passing. Engram has taken only about half all Denver offensive snaps this season (51 percent of plays). The Broncos also have two decent wideouts, so Engram isn’t as valuable to QB Nix. Through nine games, Engram has just 26 catches for 215 yards and 1 touchdown. Asking him to go OVER 3.5 receptions may be a stretch. Engram’s UNDER prop on catches is helped significantly by Denver being big favorites. We assume they won’t have to throw too many passes, especially late in the game. Nix is projected at O/U 20 pass completions. As for the Raiders defense, they don’t do many things well but their coverage against opposing tight ends has resulted in below-average numbers of opposing players at that position this season.
FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 10
(For those who just want the picks)
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — LVR QB Smith OVER .5 interceptions (-165)…W
LVR/DEN: Player Prop — DEN TE Engram UNDER 3.5 receptions (-115)…W
ATL/IND: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +6.5
ATL/IND: First-Half Line — Atlanta +3.5
ATL/IND: Full-Game Total — ATL/IND UNDER 48.5
BAL/MIN: Full-Game Line – Baltimore -4 (-105)
NWE/TB: Player Prop — NWE QB Maye OVER 21.5 pass completions (-115)
NOR/CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina -5.5
NOR/CAR: Player Prop — CAR RB Hubbard OVER 20.5 rushing yards (-115)
NYG/CHI: Full-Game Total — NYG/CHI UNDER 47
BUF/MIA: Player Prop — BUF QB Allen to score touchdown–YES (-125)
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Line — Arizona +3.5 (even)
ARZ/SEA: First-Half Team Total — Arizona OVER 9.5
ARZ/SEA: Full-Game Line — Arizona +7
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
__________
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Oct 30, 2025 in Blog |
2025 NFL: WEEK 9 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 73
LOSSES — 61
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — +$490
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-9-0 (-$135)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,490.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
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LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
Game Prop — Will both kickers make a 33+ field goal — YES (-125)….W
Player Prop — BUF QB Allen OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-130)…L
Game Prop — MIA First Drive Ends in — PUNT (+125)…W
Player Prop — MIA QB Tagovailoa to throw interception–YES (-140)…:L
Chicago +6.5 vs. Baltimore (full-game line)…L
Chicago +3.5 (first-half line)…L
Cleveland +4 (first-half line)…W
Player Prop — HOU QB Stroud OVER 202.5 passing yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — TEN WR Jefferson OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-120)…L
Player Prop — NOR QB Rattler OVER 213.5 passing yards (-115)…L
Player Prop — NOR WR Shaheed OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Team Total — New Orleans OVER 20 points (full-game)…L
NY Jets +6.5 vs. Cincinnati…W
Dallas +3.5 vs. Denver (full-game line) (-120)…L
Team Toals — Dallas OVER 23.5 (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
Player Prop — DAL WR Pickens OVER 23.5 longest catch (-115)…L
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A FEW MID-SEASON THOUGHTS:
Even though I’m having a winning year with marginal net-positive results, I still can’t help but feel like the first half of the NFL season has been a disappointment.
Perhaps it’s just an emotional overreaction to chaos and unpredictability from week-to-week. As sports handicappers, we’re supposed to never get emotionally involved in games and outcomes. But I’ve always been very open about my feelings and reactions to what I do and the way games play out.
Speaking of emotions and reacting to wins and losses, few comments about last week’s Chicago-Baltimore game are mandatory here. In Week 8, the Bears opened up as +6.5 point underdogs. The Ravens were favored mainly because QB Lamar Jackson was announced as the starter. Obviously, Baltimore is a much stronger team with Jackson (even though I still think he’s a great regular season player, but less so in the playoffs–but that’s another topic for discussion later). I liked the Bears at +6.5 no matter who was starting, and so I made a cash wager on them. On Saturday, I turned in my contest picks (at Westgate and Circa). I have 10 contest tickets, at $1,000 each. So, I have ten tickets to fill out each week. Just as I was about to make my entry official, the announcement came that Jackson was *not* starting (a few cappers paying close attention got a hint of this early Saturday when it became known Jackson did not work out with the first team offense in Friday’s team practice–a sure indication he was unlikely to start). Sure enough, the line plummeted to Chicago +2. The line dropped 4.5 points, which is huge on an NFL game. For contest picks, getting the best of a 4.5-point line move is an automatic decision. So, I put the Bears on all ten contest tickets. I was also kicking myself for not betting more money on the Bears earlier, at the generous line of +6.5.
Sports outcomes don’t turn out like we expect, and the Bears-Ravens game was the perfect example of that (add the Miami-Atlanta game, which was just as bizarre–how did the Dolphins come in and destroy the Falcons after looking so bad lately?). In the CHI-BAL game, Chicago jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after two impressive drives stalled in the Red Zone. Still, this bet looked like gold. The Ravens offense looked lost. Then….
….well, you know the rest. Baltimore won by 14 points, covering the spread easily, despite backup QB Tyler Huntley under center combined with a Ravens’ defense that had been steamrolled in nearly every game this season. And the fucking Bears…..ugh.
I looked at that final score and just shook my head. All the contest tickets were tainted with a loss, and I lost cash money as well. Fortunately, I didn’t have lots of cash on me or have a huge amount of money in my online accounts. Had I known I could take advantage of a 4.5-point line move, I would have bet the game for a very large amount. So, I may have actually saved money from a much worse defeat.
It’s hard to forget a game like that where all the stars seemed to line up perfectly for an easy winner and simply move on after a loss. Even doing everything right sometimes blows up in our faces. Hence, I’ve gradually downgraded my sides betting for precisely this reason. The NFL week-to-week seems ridiculously volatile, more even than it used to be, and I’ve been around for more years than I care to admit. Fortunately, there are many other wagering options on these games. That’s where I’ll focus more of my attention going forward.
Now, it’s on to NFL Week 9 – and of course the first game on the schedule is……BALTIMORE at MIAMI.
Waaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!
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ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 9:
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
Two of the NFL’s most unpredictable teams over the last few weeks will face off on Thursday Night Football. When we can’t predict an outcome with any degree of confidence, it’s usually best simply to take the dog–plus the points. This is especially true with a home team getting more than a touchdown. Currently, the Ravens are -7.5 favorites over the Dolphins in Miami, which seems like a lot of points to give for any big favorite with major questions while also playing on a short week. Then again–do we really want to bet on the Dolphins? Will the real Dolphins and Ravens please stand up? I lean to MIA +7.5, but will pass on making a cash wager. The total also looks a bit high at O/U 51, FWIW.
Lamar Jackson’s injury pulled a major mind fake on bettors last weekend. But he’ll likely start this time. Will Jackson quickly revert to mid-season form, or might four weeks of inactivity take time for the QB to adjust? Again–who knows?
Where value may exist with ample evidence to make a few wagers could be with fading All-Pro RB Derrick Henry. The Ravens rusher typically attracts money on the OVER props, with some justification. However, Henry’s O/U projections tend to be slightly inflated, which means taking the UNDER on various rushing props when the situation is favorable. This situation looks especially favorable tonight for Henry’s season-averages to remain flat and for him to fall under on both the rush attempts (18.5) and yardage (90.5).
My reasoning goes–these are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 31st in number of offensive plays per game, at 53 on average (Miami ranks 30th). A slower pace and fewer plays on both sides of the ball means fewer opportunities for the offensive stars and padding to their individual stat lines. The Ravens rank 22nd in rush attempts per game, their low ranking more due to playing from behind several times this season and being forced to abandon the run late in games. At 133 YPG rushing, Baltimore has fallen from their customary spot in the top three, now ranking 8th among all teams. For Henry to reach his numbers and go OVER versus Miami, he’ll have to get 70 percent of the carries and pick up a similar percentage of team rushing yards. He may get close to those percentages, but I’m counting on the final tallies to be a little short.
QB Jackson’s return likely means more confidence with the passing game. Jackson is also likely to add approx. 6.5 rushes on his own based on his prop projections, thus reducing Henry’s workload. The Ravens also have enough offensive targets to spread the ball around, and hopefully keep Henry’s attempts to a modest number.
It’s important to also note Henry’s heavy use in the last two games — 24 rushes in Week 7 and 21 rush attempts in Week 8, which was just 4 days ago. That’s 45 carries in just the last 11 days, and now the Ravens play on a short week. It’s a small sample size, but in Henry and the Ravens’ two TNF games last season, his workload was lower than average — just 16 carries for 68 yards in one game and 13 carries for 46 yards in the second. Perhaps that was by design, not wanting to wear the star down. I’d be surprised to see Henry fed the ball another 20 times with so little rest. He did score two TDs last week, but had only 71 rushing yards. Henry’s season average are lower than his career average — just 109 carries for 510 yards in seven games, which equals 15.5 rush attempts per game and 72 YPG. He’ll need an extra 4 attempts and 19 additional yards rushing to break tonight’s prop numbers. I’m betting the — no.
Obviously, a long breakaway could kill the yardage prop, and we’ve seen Henry do this in the past versus weak defenses. Miami’s defense also inspires little to no confidence, but these wagers aren’t rooted in the Dolphins’ strengths but rather speculate on the Baltimore game plan which we hope will be to distribute the ball more to other Raven players, and for Jackson to enjoy some success passing the ball. Henry should factor in, but I’m counting on this not to be an MVP night. A short week, perhaps some tired legs with Henry, and a more diverse game plan, combined with very high projections on the Ravens’ RB looks to be a good fade this week.
<<< Picks will be continuously updated Wednesday through Saturday >>>
FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 9
(For those who just want the picks)
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)…L
BAL-MIA Player Prop: BAL RB Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
CAR-GB Player Prop: CAR RB Dowdle OVER 53.5 rushing yards
MIN-DET: Player Prop: MIN QB McCarthy UNDER 19.5 pass completions (-135)
CHI-CIN: First-Half: Cincinnati +1
CHI-CIN: Full-game: Cincinnati +2 (-105)
ATL-NWE: Full-Game: New England -5
DEN-HOU: First-Half: Denver +.5 (-115)
DEN-HOU: Full-game: Denver +1.5
DEN-HOU: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-130)
SFO-NYG: Full-Game Total: UNDER 48.5 (-115)
IND-PIT: Full Game: Pittsburgh +3
NOR-LAR: Full Game: LA Rams -13.5 (-115)
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith Over 225.5 passing yards (-115)
JAX-LVR: Player Prop: LVR QB Smith OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (+115)
ARZ: DAL: First-Half: Dallas -2
ARZ-DAL: Full Game: Dallas -3
ARZ-DAL: Team Prop: Team Prop: Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG–YES (-145)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week — up through Sat. night.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Oct 29, 2025 in Blog |
REVIEW: “A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE” [NETFLIX]
A House of Dynamite is the hottest new show on Netflix. It’s so impactful that some top government officials are now commenting on it. They’re denying its realism mostly — which probably means it’s frighteningly close to being accurate. Yes, it could happen. The movie — and particularly the ending — has triggered a broad spectrum of reactions from political insiders and the general public alike. This isn’t surprising given the deep divide within our nation and the chronic depth of disinformation poisoning healthy discussion and made constructive debate difficult if not impossible.
Directed by the Oscar winner of The Hurt Locker (along with Zero Dark Thirty) the film and story are signature Kathryn Bigelow at her very best, reflecting her own unique brand of style and storytelling. Fast-pacing, jittery camera shots, imperfect angles across paper-stacked desks, awkward pauses and occasional interruptions, and devotion to the tiniest details are Bigelow’s cinematic trademark. Reminiscent of the best film adaptations of Tom Clancy’s novels a generation ago, she’s carrying that legacy and level of authenticity. Bigelow clearly hasn’t lost a step returning to the all-too familiar subject matter of another intense political and military conflict, though this crisis is not played out on battlefields, but rather beneath florescent office lights burrowed in bureaucratic concrete mazes and newsroom-looking situation rooms operating 24/7/365 under the government’s alphabet soup of letter abbreviations.
On a typical weekday work morning, out of nowhere, with no warning, the United States instantly comes under nuclear attack. An intercontinental missile flashes up on the giant scoreboard-sized screen inside the war room. It’s pointing straight at the American heartland. The warhead launch originated in a remote area of the Pacific, but no one inside our government knows for sure which global adversary gave the order to fire; nor is it known if the missile was shot by accident or intention. North Korea, perhaps? The Russians? China? A rogue terrorist? Nuclear impact approaches. We have exactly 19 minutes to decide what to do. And by the time you’ve read this far along, probably closer to 17 minutes….and counting down. What do we do? What’s your decision?
Time to call the President.
Getting important and powerful people in charge talking to each other on the phone isn’t as easy as it seems. If and when a “surprise” attack does ever come, it’s truly a surprise. More like a shock. Five minutes are wasted on everybody asking each other — “Is this real? Is this happening? It’s a drill, right? It must be a mistake.” Someplace else, the President could be speaking at a public function. The Secretary of Defense might be in the bathroom shaving. The national security duty officer is away from his desk getting a cup of coffee. The CIA’s regional expert on North Korea could be taking a personal day off. *Surprise* attacks don’t give any warnings. And now, you’ve got perhaps 16 and a half minutes to make the most important decision in your life. It may be the important decision in this nation’s history, or in the history of human civilization.
But go ahead — take your time. No pressure.
This is the intended point of A House of Dynamite. It’s not meant to entertain, though it often is spectacularly so. This is a film made to make the audience think, and think out loud — as in talk about it later. It’s a story that could happen. And if such a thing does happen, this might be close to how it plays out. We may be watching the preamble to the final chapter of humans living on the planet. The world might end not with the push of a button, but because someone who is key in the chain didn’t pick up the phone.
Bigelow’s movie does have a few flaws, and and even some minor annoyances. But these were small distractions which can easily be overlooked what’s otherwise and intensely thought-provoking film everyone should seek out and watch. Most interesting about Bigelow’s staccato scripting and exhaustive pacing (written by Noah Oppenheim) is the unusual process of repeating the same climactic 19 minutes until boom and doom three times in succession. However, each version is shown from very different vantage point and characters, each shaping his or her own opinion on the crisis. This point is critical. I won’t give away much else here, except to comment now on the ending — which will contain intentional vagueness for the benefit of those who haven’t seen it yet.
The decision as to retaliation, and when, and where exactly, and who to fire missiles back at is an excruciating one. An unidentified nuclear missile is about to hit America. So, what’s the plan? The “how to” manuals our government wrote on this question have been written, revised, and updated over seven decades, costing billions. Those manuals won’t help us now. Who has time to open up heavy binders and start reading instructions with all the war room telephones ringing, the alarms going off, staffers crying, military personnel rushing top brass off into underground bunkers, and officials frantically trying to reach their loved ones to take cover? This is the reality of how things would likely play out, even at the top with all the decision-makers. Ponder that.
Nuclear scares have been addressed in films before. From the solemn Fail Safe to the satirical Dr. Strangelove, we’ve imagined what those terrifying moments might be like for those entrusted with our fates in their hands. However, only now do we fully see the real dangers of too much dynamite in the house and not nearly enough time to decide how precisely to use that immense responsibility without getting 8 billion people killed. The ending isn’t a pretty bow with a cozy wrapped-up story that makes us all feel good. In fact, there is no ending, nor should there be. The epilogue is the discussion. The encore is in the mind.
The missile hits in less than ten minutes. And time’s running out. What’s your final decision? Do we fire back? How many missiles? What are the targets? And then, what will be do when 100 more missiles are fired right back at us, leaving us perhaps another 19 minutes time until the next round of destruction? Then, if anyone’s left, who makes the decision on round three?
You may be wondering why I posted this photo (below) to go along with my review of A House of Dynamite. I’ll explain.
Sixty-three years ago this week, on October 27, 1962 a submarine officer named Vasili Arkhipov was serving as chief of staff of a Soviet submarine group. He was aboard one of the flotilla as the executive officer. When U.S. forces dropped depth charges near the Soviet Union’s nuclear submarine during the Cuban Missile Crisis, one of his submarine crews believed that war had begun and prepared to launch a nuclear torpedo against United States forces. Arkhipov refused to authorize the launch, though he was trained and instructed precisely to do so in such a situation. His brave decision prevented the use of nuclear weapons and a first strike that almost certainly would have resulted in a similar American response, thus leading to an all-out nuclear war. Over the years, many American (and later Russian) military and government officials agreed that Arkhipov may have saved the world. Historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., advisor to President Kennedy put it bluntly:
“This was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in human history.”
Today, we live in a time when half the population has little or no knowledge of mutually-assured destruction (MAD). The Cold War is an unknown. It may take film and other art forms to remind us all of the dangers. We do need movies about serious subjects that make us think, evolve, and perhaps even become wiser. Thanks to Bigelow, A House of Dynamite might help us do exactly that. Hopefully, a few future leaders like Vasili Arkhipov will be in charge. if that terrible moment ever comes.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Oct 27, 2025 in Blog |
MEETING “LASSIE’S MOM”
Even though she died a few days ago, only now did I just learn of the death of June Lockhart. If you grew up watching 50s and 60s television, you remember her as *everyone’s* mom. Her beloved television shows included Lassie, Lost in Space, Petticoat Junction, plus many character roles in popular movies, usually typecast as the ideal mom. She embodied the perfect image of the ideal mother–and the portrayal was authentic. She was the real deal, and as nice as she could possibly be.
I got to meet Mrs. Lockhart once. The story is worth sharing.
Back in the mid-1980s, I worked as a waiter in a Downtown Dallas steakhouse. It was a popular hangout mostly for pro athletes. I waited on many of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, coach Dick Motta, John Elway, Bubby Brister, John Stockton, Paul Hornung (of the 60’s Packers), and even Mickey Dolenz (of the Monkees). Those are the ones I remember, but one celebrity stood out from the rest. Well, *two* celebrities actually, as I’ll explain.
She must have been about 65 at the time. She came in with a group of ladies, including one much older lady who sat the head of the table. They were seated in the middle of the dining room. Instantly, I recognized her face. But I couldn’t place it. Being that this was a fancy steakhouse, the dinner was a couple of hours long. At some point another waiter identified her from one of her popular TV shows. I’ve forgotten the details, but later I was chatting with Mrs. Lockhart, who very much enjoyed the attention. When the rest of the restaurant staff found out, they came to the table and she shook our hands, told a few stories, and even signed autographs (I got one, which is posted below). It was a really pleasant exchange. Mrs. Lockhart even mentioned that she was recognized in public all the time, but rarely did anyone know her *real* name. Over the years, she just became known as “Lassie’s Mom.” It was a dog-mother tagline she would embrace for the rest of her life.
In case you don’t remember, *Lassie” was a female collie and a huge star in her own right. In each week’s show, she saved the family from a terrible tragedy. Lockhart may have been a “great mom,” but her parenting skills could sure use some work. The family and little Timmy always seemed to get lost in the middle of nowhere, fell off of cliffs in need of medical attention, got robbed by bandits, were trapped inside the burning barn, cornered by a pack of wolves, and always needed hero-superdog “Lassie” to come the rescue on the *unluckiest* family farm in television history. Gee, Mom–maybe it’s time to move! And don’t forget Lassie!
The kicker to the story is the older matriarch among the ladies, stoically positioned at the head of the table. She looked to be about 80. She was elegant, but also reserved. She paid little notice to “Lassie’s Mom” who was getting all the attention from the staff. To be perfectly honest, no one spoke much to her. As their party was leaving, someone else came up to their group (I think it was another customer in the dining room). He recognized this elegant older woman. Turns out, it was none other than Greer Garson, who received 7 — yes SEVEN — Academy Award nominations for Best Actress over her illustrious career, the fourth most-nominated woman in history — including a win for Mrs. Miniver in 1942. Garson was long-retired by the time she came into the restaurant and I got to serve her. I later learned she lived the last decade of her life in one of the luxury high rise penthouses at Turtle Creek, a ritzy old money section of Dallas about two miles north of downtown. In the 40’s, British-born Garson was Hollywood royalty, one of the best-known actresses in the world. And, here she was being upstaged by “Lassie’s Mom.”
W.C. Fields once famously said “never work with children or animals.” Well, that advice certainly wasn’t true for this beloved actress.
June Lockhart died last Tuesday. She was 100 years old.
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Posted by Nolan Dalla on Oct 27, 2025 in Blog |
PEACH FLORALS WITH A HINT OF ALUMINUM:
WINE IN A CAN ?
Well, this is a first.
Check iit out — wine inside an aluminum bottle.
Until this past weekend while at a local grocery store I’d never seen anything like this before. Glass bottles are the norm in wine packaging. I’ve also seen clay bottles. I’ve seen plenty of jugs and boxes, though such wines are to be avoided at all costs. But I’ve never come across light aluminum, which reminds me of the packaging of canned beer.
Before you think I’m leaping to any rush judgements or raging into my usual criticism, let me share more about my experience with this particular wine. I’ll also comment on drinkability, and perhaps most interesting — how this could be a great *change* for wine production and shipping (and cheaper net costs in addition to reduced environmental impacts). BTW, I do not profess to be an authority on this subject. I’m just sharing my personal experience after a couple of days of buying, drinking, and thinking about this new wine discovery.
The first thing I noticed was the price. It’s marked down from $19.99 to $6.97. I’m always suspicious about sale pricing. Many stores mark it up, then mark it down. That way, the consumer thinks their getting a great deal. Jewelers are the worst at this kind of thing. But, we see it everywhere, including wine pricing.
There’s no way I would pay $19.99 for an unknown bottle of Chardonnay. I probably wouldn’t pay half that, unless I knew something about the producer. So, I was skeptical from the start about the *spectacular value.* But hell, for $6.97 how bad can it be? Note: If you buy 4 or more bottles at this store, tack on another 10 percent savings (so, each bottle could be as cheap as $6.28 a bottle). You can see the upside here. Bigly.
I bought two bottles, and returned home. Saturday afternoon, I unscrewed the cap (no corkscrew!) and poured my first glorious glass. Shocker! The wine was quite good. Very drinkable. After a few more glasses, I concluded this wine was a terrific buy for the money. The next day, I went back to the store and bought a case (12).
Here’s more of what I learned (after doing a bit of research):
1. This wine called “ELEMENT[AL]” is made by Bogle Family Vineyards, which is a big producer of drinkable and affordable wines.
2. From their website: “Element[AL] is a lightweight, shatterproof, infinitely recyclable aluminum wine bottle, 80 percent lighter than glass, and does not affect the taste.”
3. The bottle size is deceptive to the eye. It looks much smaller than the normal bottle. However, right there on the label is notification that this packaging contains 750 ml, the same as a conventional wine bottle. It really took me several “let me see this again” looks to convince me this is the same volume, but it is.
4. The weight is NOTICEABLY lighter. This might be its biggest selling point. Obviously, this could be a game changer for wine production and shipping, cutting substantially on costs. The aluminum is also unbreakable, and very convenient for outdoors, mobility, etc. It even fits nicely into a standard cup holder. I suppose a serious drinker could guzzle it straight from the bottle, but that’s not something I would do (well, maybe not — we’ll see….I’ve still got a dozen bottles to go!).
5. I have no direct knowledge of this, but I do suspect many wine drinkers will be very reluctant to change their habits. I would have rejected this instantly, except for the sale price. It will be very hard to change opinions, though this packaging works very well for low-end wines. I hope we see much more of it.
6. Aluminum bottles were introduced in early 2024, which means we’re about 18 months into the experiment. If they really expected to get $19.99 a bottle for this, it’s doomed to failure. However, anything up to $12 might tempt curiosities. And for less than $7, this is a steal.
7. Finally, it’s sad but the red tag “clearance” probably means this wine failed to sell. So, the store (Albertson’s) is discontinuing it. I hope this isn’t the case, which means I better rush out and buy another case!
My conclusion is — aluminum packaging is a great idea and something I’d like to see more of, especially on economy wines or large production, and especially big social events where the unbreakable bottle makes for mass convenience. Given pricing in industrial production of glass and the high-costs of shipping, this more lightweight option is smart. I do hope it spreads and other winemakers consider this option. If you see this wine (or others) with such packaging and it’s an affordable price point, my advice is to give it try.
This was a surprising new discovery and a pleasant wine experience.
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